China in the Indo-Pacific: September 2024

Territorial Disputes: After a five-month deployment, the Philippines announced it would withdraw its flagship vessel, the BRP Teresa Magbanua, from the disputed Sabina Shoal in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines government cited crew dehydration and hunger for the abrupt departure, as the Philippine Coast Guard was unable to resupply the ship due to Chinese obstruction. Although the Philippines was perceived to be backing down due to increased Chinese pressure, a government spokesperson disputed that notion, stating that the Philippines would deploy a replacement vessel soon. In September, Indonesia’s Coast Guard also confronted Chinese fishing vessels in waters claimed by both China and Indonesia.

As President-Elect Prabowo Subianto, a leader more focused on foreign and strategic affairs than his predecessor, prepares to take office in October, Indonesia could take a more assertive stance against China’s maritime infringements of claimed Indonesian territorial waters in the future. Furthermore, Prime Minister of Malaysia Anwar Ibrahim, who has built a close relationship with China and generally has not publicly rebuked the country over the South China Sea, refuted China’s claims that Malaysia’s oil and gas exploration in the sea infringed on Chinese territorial waters. He stated that Malaysia’s state oil firm would continue searching in those disputed areas.

Meanwhile, recent talks between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval at an intergovernmental organization comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the United Arab Emirates (BRICS) security conference in St. Petersburg, Russia, signaled an attempt to de-escalate bilateral relations after years of growing tensions between China and India. The two sides agreed to achieve complete disengagement on their shared border, after many deadly incidents along it. A few days prior to the meeting, local media sources reported that Chinese troops had encroached over thirty-seven miles into Arunachal Pradesh’s capital of Itanagar; Arunachal Pradesh state is claimed by China but administered by India.

Myanmar’s Civil War: China’s hedging strategy in Myanmar’s three-year civil war is becoming more difficult. At the end of August, the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater Command held live-fire military drills in Yunnan Province on its border with Myanmar. China also stepped up border patrols. Although China reaffirmed its support for Myanmar’s military junta last month, analysts suggested the drills were intended to prod the military junta back to the Chinese-led negotiating table.

Security Cooperation: The United States’ new sanctions on the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machinery Industry, Hubei Huachangda Intelligent Equipment, Xi’an Longde Technology Development, and Universal Enterprise have complicated Pakistan’s burgeoning security relationship with China. The entities were sanctioned for allegedly supplying equipment tied to Pakistan’s nuclear-capable ballistic missile program. Pakistan is heavily reliant on China for weapons—analysts say the sanctions will significantly limit Islamabad’s missile development going forward.

Conversely, China announced sanctions on American firms supplying weapons to Taiwan, though a Foreign Ministry spokesperson did not provide details on which companies were being sanctioned. Taiwan’s defense minister warned that China’s increased military activity near the island has made detecting a potential invasion more difficult. According to Taiwan, China’s People’s Liberation Army has conducted 2,076 incursions into its air defense identification zone in 2024.

Separately, Cambodia announced that China was gifting it two navy warships to be docked at Ream Naval Base. Chinese warships began docking at the strategically important base in December 2023. China’s funding for the base’s expansion has prompted speculation of a Chinese security buildup in the region.

Regional Diplomacy: When top leader To Lam met China’s new ambassador to Vietnam, he stressed that relations with China were “a strategic choice and a top priority” for Vietnam. To Lam was elevated to become general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam in August following the death of longtime leader Nguyen Phu Trong. Vietnam’s overture comes amid heightened strategic competition between the United States and China. Recent reporting from Reuters indicates the United States has sought to persuade Vietnam against working with Chinese firms to develop new undersea cables.

King Sultan Ibrahim’s state visit to China in September marked the first by a Malaysian monarch in a decade. The king is expected to discuss plans to develop a rail network connecting China to Singapore.